How to tell a real London package drop from a fake sale

Travel sites love a crossed-out price. £450 becomes £280 overnight and somehow every weekend is a sale. For London city breaks the only question that matters is simpler: is this flight + stay total below what Stansted and Luton packages usually cost for that city and season?

That is the bar we use on Plofair — not a red banner.

The anchor-price trick

A “was” price is often theatre. Airlines and stay sites set a high reference, then discount back to the market. If every date for Barcelona suddenly wears a sale tag, you are looking at marketing, not a rare gift.

What a genuine drop looks like

A real drop sits under the normal band for that route length and month. Examples we care about from London:

• A three-night Lisbon package that undercuts the last few weeks of similar trips
• A midweek Rome total that is clearly cheaper than the Fridays around it
• Shoulder-season Palma or Alicante packages that beat July without needing a fake strikethrough

Competition on a corridor, soft demand after school holidays, or a stay that got cheaper while the flight stayed calm — those are real reasons.

Quick checks before you book

• Is the total lower than other nearby dates to the same city?
• Are both Stansted and Luton options similarly sharp, or is one airport an outlier?
• Is the stay still guest score 8.0+ with a sensible review count?
• Does the same drop show on live packages, not only in an email subject line?

If three of those four land yes, it is probably worth taking.

When “sales” are loudest

Bank holidays, half-term, and flash weekends are when inflated reference prices show up most. The discounted figure can still sit above a quiet Tuesday in May. Compare totals, not slogans.

Build a baseline, then act

Watch the cities you actually fly to. After a few weeks you will know what a normal London to Milan or Berlin weekend costs. Then a genuine dip is obvious. Free alerts exist so you do not have to refresh both flight and hotel tabs every evening.

Ignore the theatre. Book the total that is below your own baseline for that city — guest-score stays included.